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Instead of hating dealers, traders should learn to trade like them. The insights are worth the trouble.

A trader stares intently at the three-minute chart of the E-mini S&P contract on his computer and sees that prices are plummeting through the 20 period moving average. Instantly he sells several lots, anticipating a sharp move down. But suddenly, price action pauses, stabilizes and then quickly turns around, running back up beyond his entry point. He gets stopped out for a loss. Unfazed, he focuses on his screen once more and now sees that price has pierced the 20 EMA to the upside. His momentum indicators have turned bullish, and now he buys. At first, price follows his direction, turning his floating profit-and-loss statement green – but well short of his target price. The price hesitates again, halts for one more bar and then plunges below his entry and right into his second stop loss of the day. Dazed, he watches silently as it rallies once more and now takes out the daily high without him.

What is this, you wonder. Day trading by Inspector Clousseau?
Hardly. This trader displayed enormous discipline and control. He adhered to his plan. He used proper money management techniques, and he even followed classic risk/reward ratios. In short, he did everything by the book. Yet most likely he will wind up just another victim of the market – destroyed not by the typical impulsive burn-out trades of most amateurs, but by the death of a thousand little stop-loss cuts.

Why do most traders lose money even when they follow all the proper rules? – Because markets rarely offer a smooth trend. Instead, they usually thrust and retrace frequently, spooking traders out of what eventually turn out to be profitable positions. As a result, traders are beaten by maddening runs of constant stop outs. According to famous trading coach David Landry, a series of small stops often can add up to be bigger a loss than a large stop.

Why does this happen? Markets are a zero-sum game. For every winner, there must be a loser. Winners’ profits come from the losers. The sooner retail traders understand that reality, the better are their chances of becoming profitable traders.

And on the opposite side of most of retail transactions are professional traders known as dealers. One of the main reasons prices tend to back and fill in almost all financial instruments is because when customers are buying, dealers are selling and vice versa. Dealers make their profits from the small retraces in price by quickly unloading their newly acquired inventory. If that sounds like more like a scene from a chaotic Middle Eastern bazaar than some highly sophisticated, finely engineered process – it is. That’s why those with instincts of a pushcart vendor often become much better traders than Ivy League graduates with degrees in quantitative finance.

Don’t Hate the Dealer
Whether trading stocks, options, futures or forex, I’ve never heard a kind word from retail traders about dealers. They cheat, they steal, and they make markets wide enough to drive a Mack truck through. They back away from their quotes when markets get wild. And on and on and on. All true, but immaterial.

In recent years, two factors have made markets fairer and more efficient for retail traders – competition and computerization. Presently, all major financial markets are fully electronic with strict price and time-stamp rules that provide traders with auditable results and lightning-fast execution. Often traders have the opportunity to join the dealers in buying on the bid and selling on the ask, thus completely leveling the playing field. In short, why be mad at the dealers for your own bad decisions? Dealers, after all, offer a necessary market service – liquidity. Don’t think so? Just try to get rid of a 100,000-share position after market hours if some adverse news hits the stock. Volatility takes on a whole new meaning when 33 percent of your position value disappears in less than a minute on what often is only a mildly bad piece of news.

Instead of hating dealers, traders should learn to trade like them. Unlike regular retail traders, dealers usually follow two maxims: Always be fading, and never trust the first price. The fact that dealers usually are on the opposite side of price action really should come as no surprise when one realizes that 80 percent of the time markets are range-bound – and, therefore, retrace the original move. During the 20 percent of the time when markets do trend, dealers often sustain losses. Tom Baldwin was a former meatpacker who started with a $25,000 grubstake and became one of the largest market makers in the Chicago Board of Trade’s Treasury bond pit, often turning over $1 billion of inventory per day. In an interview with Jack Schwager he said the following, “Because I’m a market maker, I take the other side of the trend. So if the market goes one way for 50 ticks, I can guarantee you I’m going the wrong way, and at some point it is going to be a loss.”

Typically when dealers incur trend risk, they chalk it up to cost of doing business. However, on some occasions the one-way moves are so severe and so relentless that dealers can go bankrupt. Witness the example of several NYSE specialist firms that continued to make markets during the 1987 stock market crash and sustained unrecoverable losses.

Scaling in – Not Averaging Down
Although fading the trend may not be the rule most retail traders wish to follow, it is the dealers’ second trick that can be of tremendous help to retail speculators. In his very informative book, The Market Makers Edge, Josh Lukeman writes, “Successful market makers have controlled the ego-based need to be absolutely correct. Because markets are constantly in motion, it is almost impossible to be exactly right on (in your entries).” Such a probative approach to the markets is at the heart of most successful professional trading. Dealers know full well that their first foray into the trade is often wrong. They rarely commit the full position amount on the first try.

One of the key differences between professionals and amateurs is that professionals scale into trades while amateurs average down. This statement may seem like clever wordplay, but it’s not. Let’s assume that both the professional and the amateur decide to risk two percent of their capital account on a particular trade. The professional knows full well that he will not be able to hit the exact entry point on his first attempt. Therefore, he may allocate only 0.3% of his capital to the first entry, 0.6% on the second and 1.2% to the third – and stop himself out at -2.7% away from original entry price (-2% risk).

On the other hand, the amateur will plow in with a full two-percent position, and then when the trade goes against him, he may decide to “double down again” and then average in yet a third time. At this point, the amateur has committed six percent of his capital to the trade, and if the trade continues to move against him, he will throw in his towel with a massive -12% loss (sum of -6%,-4% and -2% losses). Five disasters like that and the amateur loses 60 percent of his account. In a zero-sum game, he has just moved much closer to zero.

Over-Leverage and Diversification
This example serves to illustrate one of the greatest pieces of trading advice ever given. When asked by Jack Schwager what is the one act most traders must do to become successful, Bruce Kovner – perhaps the greatest hedge fund manager ever and a man who has beaten the markets for more than 30 years and to whom other hedge fund managers entrust their savings – simply said,” Undertrade, undertrade, undertrade.” Prodded further by Schwager, he explained, “Whatever you think your position ought to be, cut it at least in half. My experience with novice traders is that they trade three to five times too big. They are taking five- to ten-percent risks on a trade when they should be risking one- to two-percent.”

Unfortunately, this is the advice most retail traders roundly ignore. It’s not exciting to trade for pennies and nickels – far more glamorous to try to make $1,000 a day. Yet that is the likeliest path to ruin. After having watched thousands of accounts trade, I can unequivocally say that the biggest reason for the failure of most retail traders is not lack of knowledge, nor is it the inability to understand the nuances of the market or poor technical analysis skills. The number one reason is over-leverage.

Imagine you are driving down a typical suburban street in your subdivision at the normal 25 mph. Now imagine that the speed of the car suddenly accelerates to 250 mph. What are the chances that you will make it to the end of the block unharmed, especially if your neighbor is driving towards you from the other direction? That’s leverage. Professionals fully recognize its power and do not risk more than they control – and then they diversify their risk by not betting everything on one single price.

As investors, we are always taught that diversification is crucial to success in the market. Yet when it comes to trading, most speculators practice the “all-in approach.” Harry Markowitz, who in the 1950s was the first man to apply systematical statistical analysis to the market, demonstrated mathematically how the average of highly risky securities actually generates a smaller standard deviation (and therefore, smaller risk) than a uniform portfolio of presumably safe stocks. The math behind his discovery is beyond the scope of this article, but suffice it to say that this seeming enigma applies to diversification of price action as well. Getting a blended price often is less risky than plowing all at once into the trade.

Applying Dealing Methods to Trend
While scaling may be appealing to many retail traders, trading against the trend probably will not appeal to most. So here is an example, and please note that it is only a suggestion and by no means a trading setup. Every trader must discover his own edge in the market – there is no such thing as easy money.

Having dispensed with disclaimers, let’s examine one common strategy many retail traders like to follow – the break-out trade. Using dealing methodology, here is an approach to possibly make the trade less risky. As shown in Figure 1, the trader can scale into the trade three times. By diversifying his position, he does not even need to have price exceed his initial entry point to record a profitable trade! If, however, he is correct in anticipating the direction, he still can capture the move with a partial entry. Consequently, by modifying the risk, the retail speculator can improve his approach and truly begin trading like a dealer.

 

Copyright © 2005 SFO Magazine All rights reserved.
Reproduction in whole or in part without permission is prohibited.

Welcome to China's China

Wang Li may live deep in China's interior, in a city you may never have heard of--the provincial capital of Chengdu--but that doesn't stop her from shopping like the big spenders of Tokyo, Hong Kong or Shanghai. One Friday evening, Wang, 28, trolls down Chunxi Street, a jam-packed thoroughfare of flashing neon signs, McDonald's restaurants and boutiques, looking for the latest fashions she's admired in Cosmopolitan magazine.

First stop is a store selling oddly streaked jeans, next a shop with frilly jackets and flowery coats. After two hours of hunting, she finally plunks down $24 on a pair of brown shoes at a funky outlet selling studded boots and fluffy handbags that's playing earsplitting Gwen Stefani tunes. Wang spends nearly every yuan she earns as a real estate agent on shopping excursions, dinners and drinking sessions with friends. That's no small chunk of change. Since her first job in a coffee shop eight years ago, Wang's annual income has vaulted more than 1,500%, to $7,500. "Five years ago, I'd be happy if I had a little money to buy a small snack on the street. I was yearning for KFC, and my dream was to get pizza," Wang recalls. "Now I can do it."

Can do is the new M.O. of Chengdu. Although 1,000 miles from the glamour of Shanghai, Chengdu has a surprising number of choices for Wang and her fellow aspirants. As China's fourth largest city, it is catching up to the world's richest at a blistering pace. It has a booming economy, escalating incomes and 10.8 million people--more than New York City. Wooing the newly wealthy of Chengdu is a top priority for consumer companies from Coca-Cola to General Motors to Christian Dior. Chengdu is only one of several mammoth metropolises--like Chongqing, Wuhan and Xi'an--experiencing similar booms of investment, wages and jobs.

Welcome to China's China, a land of gargantuan urban centers beyond Shanghai and Beijing where the growth potential is giving consumer-products makers palpitations. "If you want to be No. 1 in China, you have to be successful in every city in China," says Ian Chapman-Banks, chief of marketing for North Asia at Motorola.

On Chengdu's main square, near the outstretched arm of a statue of Mao, sits a shopping center with Cartier, Zegna and Hugo Boss outlets. One night at the new Seibu department store, which opened last April, Italy's Missoni held a fashion show with Chinese models strutting to thumping reggae music. "Everybody who comes to Chengdu has a surprise," says an ebullient Antonino Laspina, the Italian trade commissioner in China, on the sidelines of the show. Living in Chengdu "is becoming like living in New York, Paris or Milan."

Not quite. Yet only a few years ago, the boundless interior was a daunting and unprofitable place for many companies. Giant cities like Chengdu languished, starved of investment and government attention that went to Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou. Chengdu was known mainly as China's largest panda-preservation center. Some companies like Korea's Samsung that tried to make an early move were disappointed and left, or limited their expansion.

The gaping disparity between East and West was also becoming a big headache for China's policymakers. Fearing disgruntled Westerners would grow unruly, Beijing stepped in seven years ago with an aggressive program to bring balance to the national economy. The government poured money into infrastructure like new airports and expressways throughout western China, with good result. "We follow the tarmac," notes Andy Coslett, CEO of Intercontinental Hotels, which is building like mad in Chengdu, Chongqing, Xi'an and other cities.

Residents of Chengdu, glued to the Internet and TV shows like Friends, are striving to connect with the outside world more than ever before, in fashion trends, food and lifestyles. Starbucks is importing its coffee-education strategy to persuade customers to splurge on a cappuccino. (A grande latte in Chengdu costs about $3.30, a huge sum in a city where locals typically earn less than $7 a day.) Starbucks has seven outlets in Chengdu (more than Peoria, Ill.) and is on its way to 10 to 15.

Foreign investors are lured west by the interior's lower costs--salaries for highly skilled college graduates in Chengdu are about 30% lower than in Shanghai--as well as tax breaks and other juicy incentives. After Motorola opened a software R&D center in Chengdu in 2001, the city government built the company a special building, complete with a rooftop patio.

Today industrial parks outside the city center house research labs from Nokia and Ericsson. U.S. bearings producer Timken is investing $15 million in a factory that will start production this year. Intel has poured $525 million into two chip-assembly and -packaging plants, one of which opened in 2005, while the second will start production this year. These facilities ship from Chengdu's airport to customers around the globe. Overall, foreign direct investment in Chengdu totaled $1.9 billion from 2001 to 2005. The results have been spectacular. GDP growth in Chengdu averaged 13.3% between 2001 and 2005, outpacing Shanghai's 11.9%. In 2005, per capita GDP reached $2,700, still only a third of Shanghai's but 70% greater than in 2000. Wages have surged more than 90%, to more than $2,400 a year on average during that same period, rapidly approaching Shanghai's $3,300.

Consumers in Chengdu are taking a page from the American book on spending, since they appear less interested in saving and more willing to take on debt to indulge themselves. Despite having lower incomes, Chengdu ranks among China's three largest cities in the number of privately owned cars clogging the roads. GM's sales in Chengdu grew about 40% in 2006, twice that of Beijing. Zhao Jinhui, vice president of Chengdu-based Eastern Kingo Auto Group, a large Chevy dealer in China, says that 22% of his customers finance their purchases, compared with only 5% nationally. "In Beijing, when they get rich, they buy cars; in Shanghai, apartments. In Chengdu, they buy both," Zhao says.

Chengdu's car-crazy locals chalk up their carefree spending habits to the city's more laid-back atmosphere. It's China's L.A.; the stressed-out Type A lifestyle is, like, so Shanghai. But also at work is their desire to catch up to China's wealthier metropolises. Like many nouveau riche, people in Chengdu have got into a keeping-up-with-the-Wangs mentality. Jin Jin, 27, a staff member at a local university, says he spends 10 times more each month than he did two years ago, especially on branded sportswear from Nike, Adidas and Reebok. "The reason I do this is because I cannot make my girlfriend think that I am poor," he says.

Still, capitalizing on all this new spending isn't automatic or even easy in a country of 1.3 billion. "I don't think that it has ever been more difficult to go national than in China," says William Ghitis, president of global apparel at Invista, the maker of Lycra. One hurdle is the logistical nightmare created by China's sheer size. Motorola has tripled the number of its sales outlets, to 30,000, in just the past 18 months to penetrate deeper into interior markets. Chapman-Banks says it often takes weeks to get new phones to these outposts. Then there's the challenge of organizing marketing efforts and training salespeople in such far-flung locales. "This is the most complex market I've ever worked in," he says.

Another problem is staffing. Cities like Chengdu don't have enough managers with global experience. HSBC, a company with a vast history in China, opened a branch in Chengdu in 2005 to service corporate customers. It would like to begin retail-banking operations in the city, but a dearth of local talent is one factor holding it back. "It is not easy to find staff who are familiar with foreign operations but also have a good understanding of the local market and customs," says Henry Han, manager of the Chengdu branch.

Many foreign consumer companies are undaunted by such problems, and competition between them is heating up. Helena Tan, general manager of a Buick dealership in Chengdu, says that when she first started managing the business eight years ago, she had three competitors. Now Tan is fighting it out with 15, from Nissan, Toyota and Volkswagen to local players like Chery. Tan provides all kinds of extras to keep Chengdu drivers in Buicks, such as handing out hair dryers, rice cookers and other gifts to car buyers and computer games to entertain those waiting for auto repairs. "A few years ago, customers would come in with bags of cash begging you to sell them a car," Tan says. Those days are over.

The secret to success in cities like Chengdu is going local. French hypermarketer Carrefour, which opened its fifth outlet in Chengdu in January, overhauled its prepared-food department to cook up the chili-laden specialties favored by natives, including marinated rabbit heads and roasted duck jaws. Samsung reopened its operation here in 2004, but it is going native. Shoppers in China's west, says Ko You Chan, Samsung's managing director for the western districts, usually expect a small gift when they make a major purchase. So Samsung liberally doles out free DVDs and other goodies. Result: sales of Samsung consumer electronics were up 50% in the region in 2006. The lesson, says Ko, is that "it's not easy to control everything from Beijing."

In all likelihood, Chengdu and China's other interior cities will look more and more like Shanghai every year. The optimistic citizens of Chengdu, such as Liu Xindi, couldn't imagine anything else. Liu, 33, has seen his income skyrocket 20-fold since he began working 15 years ago. Now Liu, who sells ads for the local Yellow Pages, can splurge whenever he wants on his soccer shoes, badminton racquets and biking gear. But he still thinks the good times are just starting to roll. "Of course, I think my life will be better in the future," Liu says confidently. "The economy of the city is growing, and it's not going to stop. There's no question about it."

With reporting by Jodi Xu/Beijing

无论是什么样的互联网公司,无论它被冠以怎样的“新知识经济”头衔,它都还是一个公司,必须依靠收入来支撑企业的发展.在第二轮互联网经济热情高涨之际,我们更需要理性地去看浮华背后的商业模式.
为此,《IT时代周刊》与易观国际在这万象更新之际,通过对2006年的回顾以及对2007年的预测,盘点整理出互联网的10大创新模式,这些模式的创新不再是形式上的,而是以业务为基础的创新模式.

互联网呼唤新的赢利创新模式 　　Web2.0的商业前景被普遍看好，国内外的互联网企业也正在积极研究Web2.0与商业的最佳结合点。但目前，仍然没有形成成功的商业模式 　　门户网站模式是互联网最早的商业模式，也是最成功的！ 　　按时间来看，门户网站的首创者是美国的雅虎。顾名思义，既然叫做门户，首先它应该是上网用户的第一站。早期的门户网站主要是搜索引擎功能，雅虎最早建立门户网站也只是为一些比较知名的网站分类，并且建立索引，方便用户查找。 　　但随着时间的推移，门户的性质也慢慢发生了变化，门户网站向着大而全的方向发展。门户网站的衡量指标在后期也发生了很大的变化。以前门户网站的衡量指标是用户注册数量、点击率，原因是以往资本市场仅要求网站把规模做大，提高市场占有率。而现在门户网站的衡量指标最流行的是平均在线时间，指用户在网站的停留时间。这就要求网站拥有尽可能多的内容。从目前来看，在线广告一直是门户网站的盈利主体，基本会占到门户网站的50％以上。除此之外，移动增值业务也在门户网站的收入中占相当大的份额。 　　与已经成熟的门户网站模式相比，一些新兴的商业模式在互联网的经济时期过得并不好。 　　随着互联网宽带化、大众化、个性化、移动化的不断发展，新应用层出不穷。带有Web2.0 特征的服务已经越来越多地进入网民的视野：RSS、SNS、Tag、Blog、P2P……这些一度只在专业人士的小圈子里出现的概念已经成为众多网络用户的应用。可以说，Web2.0已经成为2006年上半年互联网领域以及本次互联网大会出现频率最高的词汇。 　　从互联网行业和商业应用的角度来看，Web2.0的商业前景被普遍看好，国内外的互联网企业也正在积极研究Web2.0与商业的最佳结合点。但目前，仍然没有形成成功的商业模式。 　　正因如此，现在绝大部分互联网企业所谓的商业模式正在陷入尴尬；而找到路子的企业也照样摆脱不了某些因素的困扰。例如，依靠收取广告费生存的媒体盈利模式难克三大制约：一是保证不了较大的流量绝对值；二是无法做到流量具有较高的针对性；三是不能确实有效地把信息传到有价值的客户身边。另一方面，服务盈利模式也存在着无法提供差异化服务，难于提高用户的黏性以及忽略盈利渠道的建设，致使市场环节断裂的操作误区。 　　以往，互联网的主要盈利模式无外乎是网络广告，从对互联网盈利模式的研究中发现，愿意为内容付费的用户原来越多。突破主要靠网络广告而生存的商业模式已迫在眉睫，2006年整个互联网市场的大盘子是270亿的赢利，互联网广告、搜索占47亿，服务占160亿，中介服务63亿。从这个比例来看，目前互联网的主要赢利还是来自服务，这里面应该包括了产品服务、平台服务等等，其中电子商务的赢利也只是一部分而已。根据易观国际的预测，网络广告到2010年最乐观的成长基本在180~200亿，网络广告的这块蛋糕，是否可以填饱越来越多公司的肚子？ 　　互联网呼唤新的商业模式出现！ 10个商业模式完成互联网的自我拯救 　　中国传统的互联网企业，现在正陷入商业模式陈旧、竞争压力加剧的陷阱。真正能够得到资本市场和消费者认可的互联网企业，一定是具有创新能力的企业 　　中国传统的互联网企业，仅仅依赖于简单的短信、互联网广告和网络游戏，肯定会陷入商业模式陈旧、竞争压力加剧的陷阱。真正能够得到资本市场和消费者认可的互联网企业，一定是具有创新能力的企业。 　　创新，是互联网的基本驱动力，而创新最直接的体现是业务的专业化提供，并在此基础上，不断深化技术与市场拓展。 　　即便是现在最被资本市场看好的搜索市场，也依然没有找到真正可以支撑自己的商业模式。广告仍然是搜索引擎主要的收入来源，但是越来越多的新搜索势力加入进来，比如微软等等并不把广告作为强迫的信息来提供，也正在动摇搜索市场的商业模式。 　　在多数互联网企业惆怅之际，已有个别的企业在摸索中探寻到了一条可能带来长期赢利、实现企业商业成功的发展道路。 　　在经历了互联网寒冬后，《IT时代周刊》和易观国际发现一些其他的商业模式开始崭露头角：谱写网游传奇的盛大、开创独立搜索而上市的百度等等，无一不让中国互联网行业，乃至华尔街股市为之震惊——中国的互联网企业在重新崛起，商业模式在不断刷新中！ 　　1、电子商务与无线的结合发展模式 　　2006年，腾讯拍拍网以黑马姿态杀入，并凭借腾讯QQ强大的即时通信IM平台所拥有的数亿用户基数和IM与拍拍网的强粘性结合，取得了不错的业绩。年底，eBay易趣作为中国颇具实力的C2C平台之一，易手TOM在线，这意味着中国C2C互联网平台的格局从2005年的淘宝、eBay易趣之争经过 2006年的发展转化为了2007年淘宝、拍拍、TOM易趣三国鼎立的时代。在无线互联网蓬勃发展、3G大门被频频叩响的今天，基于用户基数的无线互联网的引进将成为中国电子商务C2C领域的“黑马”，无处不在的用户电子商务时代即将来临。 　　2、企业电子商务平台的垂直发展模式 　　对于个人用户来讲，无法熟知的企业级电子商务，例如，阿里巴巴、环球资源等，一贯以综合电子商务平台的角色出现。综合性B2B平台所提供的信息具有全面性的优势，交易平台本身对于中小型交易在电子支付领域、物流接口等方面具有优势，但是运营压力大，利润率相对低。而在中国，我们触手可及的资本市场成功上市的网盛科技则即将改变企业级电子商务市场的格局，通过垂直B2B平台所具有的运营成本低、信息精准和高置信度特点等优势，更主动地扩大其在专业企业级交易中的市场份额的路径已经清晰可见。 　　同类内容的企业级电子商务平台的合作，更有利于专项行业的市场发展。 　　3、“以销定采”的电子商务发展模式 　　以往电子商务服务提供商所面临的三大挑战是：信息流、资金流、物流。一家名为爱代购的新型电子商务在其2006年宣布上线时，为业界带来的则是以 BforC为主的商业模式，有效避免了传统的B2C库存的缺陷。BforC模式采用的是“以销定采”的方式，通过虚拟的产品定购，避免了原有B2C厂商的库存压力，解决了信息流、资金流、物流三流中关键的资金流问题，同时打通B2C、B2B、C2C之间的界限。此类运营模式之前更多的存在于旅游行业，将虚拟定制模式引入传统IT采购环节中，此模式属落地并成功的一个案例。 　　作为全新的电子商务模式，BforC具有较明显的优势，前景广阔。 　　4、线上、线下畅通的电子商务发展模式 　　国家邮政局与阿里巴巴集团在北京签署了电子商务战略合作框架和产品协议，在电子商务的信息流、资金流、物流等方面达成了全面、长期的合作伙伴关系。为了增加合作的可信度，做为人们心目中的国有企业——邮政EMS还专门为此次合作推出了一款名为“e邮宝”（EMS电子商务经济快递）的新产品。 　　此次的合作不仅为传统的电子商务企业增加了一个不错的物流选择方式，同时，也增加了用户对产品购买中诚信满意度的提升，获得了卖家粘性与买家购物体验的双重收获。 　　寻找更可信的合作伙伴将成为传统电子商务企业增加粘性的创新模式。 　　5、大型搜索引擎将在运营商与电子商务运营商之间开展深入合作 　　电子商务和搜索引擎的发展趋势使合作越来越紧密，电子商务网站目前最重要的特征是要具备优秀的搜索功能，一旦消费者无法搜索到想要的商品，即会转移到其他网站。因此，拥有高质量的站内搜索工具对刺激在线零售商的销售收入是至关重要的。为能在2008年奥运经济中占领商机，2007年，大型搜索引擎将在运营商与电子商务运营商之间开展深入合作，“电子商务+搜索”的模式将使商业信息搜索更有针对性、更有商业价值，且有风险控制体系。 　　正确的选择合作伙伴成为新一轮模式创新的敲门砖。“术业有专攻”的古语不能被新兴族所抛弃，各吃一方领土的时代即将成为过去，放眼如何通过合作的模式获得更多其他领土的收成变得众望所归了。 　　6、强强联手的合作创新模式 　　与电子商务相同，无论是互联网还是传统行业都在窥视着这一合作模式的成功。 　　单一产品的可诉求性无法满足用户日益膨胀的需求，在搜索引擎领域乘胜追击的百度不久前与微软宣布，将启动一项基于搜索服务方面的合作，目的在于将百度的竞价排名系统引入微软在MSN、Live以及其搜索相关的服务中，并寻求可能的商业机会。当前中国是微软全球最重要的市场之一，这次合作不仅为中国的在线广告客户创造新的机会，而且也增进了搜索服务质量。 　　通过此合作的创新，获得：MSN通过引入百度的搜索服务，一方面借助百度的商业运营经验，尤其是渠道扩展经验，扩展中国本地市场；另一方面提升MSN Portal等服务在用户搜索方面的体验。 　　百度和MSN中国的合作，不仅赢得更多的流量，在合作中进一步提升自身在高端市场的品牌，同时也提升了Google中国的进入壁垒。 　　7、虚实电子货币市场的合作创新模式 　　兴业银行携手腾讯推出国内首张虚实合一的信用卡——兴业银行QQ秀信用卡，面向腾讯QQ秀一族提供包括虚拟卡支付、财付通还款、在线申请、电子账单通知、即时消息提醒等多种网络特色服务。 　　易观国际认为，腾讯与兴业银行的合作，是一次电子货币市场在虚拟货币管理和电子货币管理对接上的创新和重要尝试。随着互联网服务的普及，重视用户在互联网消费中，包括实物消费、虚拟物品消费的交易保障是互联网服务提供商未来的工作重心之一。这种联名卡的合作，对于消费者而言，提供了更好的支付途径和平台，提升用户在消费中的体验。对于服务提供商而言，能够预防虚拟与现实货币的嫁接和管理中所遇到的风险，此风险将由银行和服务机构共同来承担。同时，真正让用户对虚拟货币有了“钱”的概念。这一合作创新仅是交易上的，同时也是互联网开闭环上的。通过虚拟货币与实体金融机构的链接，更有效地增加了用户的购物体验，促进交易频次并增加了用户的黏性。 　　8、网络广告媒介资源的合作创新模式 　　合作模式一般主要出现在企业间，而对于万普世纪这个提供独立WAP站点的媒体代理服务机构来讲，合作不是基于企业的，而是基于个人用户的。WAP站点由于其非官方性导致其拥有很大一部分个人用户网站，通过对个人用户的培育，万普世纪获得了庞大的独立WAP站点队伍，促进了无线互联网的发展。由于是培育的，所以对这些站点有着深入了解，可以有效控制，实行集中管理和采购，并实现更高媒介代理利润率。提供了将媒体代理和媒介的培育、管理想结合的创新合作模式，从而获得了更高的广告投放效率和业务利润率。 　　9、给玩家发“工资”的个人合作创新模式 　　《征途》在2006年 8月份推出正式版本，并在运营模式上再次变革，采用给玩家发“工资”的“征途模式”，受到玩家欢迎。此外，从公布的在线人数上来看，《征途》也取得了较大进步。成立于2004年11月18日的上海征途网络科技有限公司，是一家以网络游戏为发展起点，集研发、运营、销售为一体的综合性互动娱乐企业。公司凭借自主研发的第一款2D大型多人在线角色扮演类网络游戏（MMORPG）《征途》打入中国网络游戏市场，并创建了“征途模式”。给玩家发“工资”的模式有效获得了用户的粘性并将其转变为交易，运营商可以从中获得广告以外的虚拟物品易货利润。 　　无论是盛大的免费网游还是征途模式对网民发放工资，都是中国游戏运营商探索市场蓝海的创新性尝试。而随着中国政府对网络游戏监管力度的加强和法律法规的完善，虚拟物品交易将在2007年得到政府、运营商和游戏玩家前所未有的重点关注，70％以上的游戏在2007年将采取免费模式，以收取增值服务费用和出售虚拟物品来获取收入，虚拟物品交易平台将正式受到运营商的支持而出现官方色彩的虚拟物品交易平台。 　　10、与用户一同赚钱的合作创新模式 　　与用户一同赚钱的合作模式指的是：将广告嵌入视频博客作品中，根据广告展示次数与作者共同分享广告收入。其根据人气把博客分为九段，段位越高分成比例也越高，通过这样的分成模式，使更多优秀的内容持续上传到网站，保证了内容的质量，也在量上有了显著的提升。 　　2003年至今，已知中国境内有16家网络视频企业获得风险投资，融资总金额将近1亿美元，其中5家企业获得两轮融资。在易观国际对于网络视频市场的研究中发现，目前主流的十几家网络视频服务提供商当中，能够基本实现收支平衡的仅有2家，其中酷溜网以其“一起赚钱了”的商业模式于2006年7月14日上线以后在几个月内得到了广告主的初步认可，基本实现了收支平衡。 　　但不可否认的是，此商业模式在规模化运作上存有一定缺陷，但我们认为其仍然是一个值得关注的创新商业模式。 成功运营商业模式的关键在人 　　检验商业模式是否具有可操作性，首要的条件是要有竞争力，核心竞争力的关键是人。好的商业模式加上好的团队，才会形成效应 　　10年的风雨和起落，把一个曾经充满燥热的互联网产业敲打得更加务实。10年间，互联网悄然改变了我们的生活模式、经营模式、资本模式，其对经济和社会各个方面的影响力远远超出了我们原来的预期。 　　但在商业模式匮乏的今天，这10个商业模式的创新能否成功运营下去，引领中国互联网的第二次浪潮呢？ 　　我们需要什么样的互联网公司来运营这些商业模式，检验它们是否真的具有可执行性？ 　　从1996年开始算，中国互联网过去的十年是一个以娱乐消费为主的十年，未来十年，互联网将跨入以商务为主的互联网时代。更多的企业触网，通过互联网来进行交易以及发布信息，把互联网变成彼此之间上下耦合的关键，其中承载了有很多的商机。 　　虽然今天的互联网创业相对还比较盲目，更多的还是基于消费的商业模式。我们所讲的创新不再是形式上的创新，今后的互联网不会再有Google的出现，我们要反思的是模式本身的创新，寻求更符合赢利需求的创新。 　　要检验这些商业模式是否具有可操作性，首要的条件是要有竞争力，核心竞争力的关键是人，团队很重要。好的商业模式加上好的团队，才会产生竞争优势。如果能够做到这一点，就能够实现一定的市场优势。

　　蒙娜丽莎的名字因达·芬奇一幅肖像画而家喻户晓，Mona是文艺复兴时期意大利语对“夫人”的简称和尊称，所以直译过来，《蒙娜丽莎》这幅肖像画的名字应该是《丽莎夫人》。人们根据瓦萨里的记载大致可以确定，画中人为佛罗伦萨银行家弗朗西斯科·杰列·乔贡多的妻子丽莎夫人。她出生于1479年，达·芬奇为她画像时间是1503年，正是她24—27岁的时候。

　　为了让蒙娜丽莎微笑，画家动用了充满智慧的脑袋，给她讲精彩、愉快的故事，请琴师和艺人为她表演，让这位神态矜持、表情淡漠的少妇保持住珍贵的微笑。蒙娜丽莎坐定后把一只手放在另一只手上。画家注意到夫人裸露的颈项和丰腴的双手被金银珠宝所占有，就对她说：“如果夫人不反对的话，我想描绘不加任何装饰的颈项和手臂，这是属于您最纯真的美。”于是，蒙娜丽莎摘下所有饰物。使后人看到的是一位毫无修饰、情趣天然的少妇。

　　以上都是电影和小说里的描述。后人为了想象和再现这一情境并确保合乎情理、生动感人，所花的功夫远比达·芬奇本人为了让蒙娜丽莎微笑所花的更大。

　　2006年9月，加拿大全国研究委员会的一个研究小组宣称，他们自2004年接受法国国家博物馆邀请对这幅画进行深入研究，通过激光扫描制作出作品的三维图像，发现最初的“蒙娜丽莎”穿一件很薄的孕妇装，头发梳成一个小圆髻。她紧紧地抓住椅子把，而不是像我们今天看到的那样靠在椅背上坐得笔直。

　　这个发现解决了长期以来的一个争论。因为在16世纪的意大利，只有行为不端的女人才把头发披在肩上，而真正的蒙娜丽莎是个有社会身份的妇女。她与自己的丈夫生有3个孩子，其中第三个孩子出生于1503年开始作这幅肖像画之后不久。肖像画初稿描绘的很可能是当时这位模特儿的实际状态。达·芬奇自1503年以来从未完成这幅画，而是不断地修改，直到去世。因此有可能或是画家向对方提出要求调整，或是在以后的修改过程中改变了丽莎夫人的发型与其他细节。

　　几年前，意大利的研究人员宣称找到了达·芬奇在佛罗伦萨的这间工作室，它在佛罗伦萨市中心桑蒂西马·安诺兹亚塔修道院里。蒙娜丽莎和丈夫丝绸商人弗朗西斯科·杰列·乔贡多一家人在这座修道院里有一个小礼拜堂。在过去的100年里，这座修道院一直由军事地理研究所占用，直到最近对修道院的部分设施进行修缮时，专家们才发现了被认为是达·芬奇使用过的这间工作室。

　　还是那位16世纪传记作家瓦萨里，他在《艺术家们的生活》一书中写到修士们曾带他进入房间并看到达·芬奇使用的东西。今天这间工作室尚存有壁画装饰，专家们认为这些壁画是达·芬奇和他的学生们画上去的。其中一幅壁画描绘的是被群鸟围绕、长有翅膀的天使，专家们认为这表现的是“天使报喜”的主题，与乌菲齐美术馆保存的达·芬奇的一幅“天使报喜”使用的技法类似。

　　达·芬奇于1502年离开修道院，出任塞萨里·波吉亚的军事工程师，10个月后返回佛罗伦萨。《蒙娜丽莎》就是在那以后画出来的，时间约在1503年—1506年；然而就是到了500年后的今天，它依然让人们捉摸不透。他只是把绘画艺术当作认识世界和表达世界的一个途径，一旦解决了某个难题就不再关心，马上就去探索另一个奥秘。

　　达·芬奇不愿意被人们说成是一个“画家”或“工程师”只有在美的创造中他才能得到满足。为此达·芬奇不惜用4年的时间去画《蒙娜丽莎》，似乎要证明一个人究竟可以把一件事情做好到什么程度；然而他又不停地去探索新领域，更像是在证明，一个人一生在世究竟能做多少事。15世纪—16世纪意大利的科学与理智、美的追求与创造，由于达·芬奇而登峰造极。他超越了时代，使我们今天仍在享受这份珍贵的精神遗产。

centering align

CSS其中一个优点是它能够在不使用表现的标记来控制页面的layout。所有的css layout技术都依赖于三个基本的概念：positioning，floating和margin的操作。

长度过长的内容读起来很困难，特别是现代的显示器的宽度越来越大，屏幕的可读性问题就变得越来越重要了，设计师解决这个问题的方法就是把他们的设计居中显示而不是全屏显示。居中的设计只是跨越屏幕的一部分，以创建一个较短的和易于阅读宽度。

居中设计在现在是一种很流行的方法，因此，学习怎样在css里使用居中显示也是很多开发者想学的第一样东西。居中设计有两个基本的方法：一种是使用auto margins，另一种是使用positioning 和负margins，下面介绍这两种方法。

1. auto margins

<body>
<div id="wrapper">
</div>

水平居中div元素的css为：

#wrapper{ width:720px; margin:0 auto; border:5px #666 solid; }

水 平居中我们就可以更灵活地控制div里的内容显示了，我们也可用百分比和用字符数单位em来表示div的宽度了。上面的代码在现在的浏览器里可以工作得很 好，但是在IE 5.X和IE 6上就不能正常工作（居左显示），幸运的是IE误解了text-align:center，它会将所有元素都居中而不只是文本，所以我们可以这样：

body{text-align:center;}
#wrapper{ width:720px; margin:0 auto; border:5px #666 solid; text-align:center;}

这是一个hack的方法，这个fairly innocuouse（无害的）hack也不会对你的代码有不利的影响，现在在IE上可以居中显示了。

2. positioning 和负 margins

如果你不想法用之前的方法，认为不必多加一个hack，那可以用下面这个方法，首先将div的左边居中，然后再将div的margin-left设置为它的宽度一半的负数，就这样的简单：

#wrapper { width: 720px; position: relative; left: 50%; margin-left:-360px; border:5px #666 solid;}

方便吧，快去用到你自己的设计中去吧。



float-based layout

创建css为基础的layout，可以使用positioning和负margins，但是我发现用float-based layout方法更加容易。而使用float-base layout最重要是需要使用clear（清除）the floats。

两列floated layout：

要使用floats来布局两列的设计，你需要使用XHTML framework。下面的例子将包含有好几个区域，branding，content，navigation和footer，然后嵌套在div wrapper里，div wrapper将会使用水平居中。

<div id="wrapper">
<div id="branding">
...
</div>
<div id="content">
...
</div>
<div id="mainNav">
...
</div>
<div id="footer">
...
</div>

主 导航会在左边，主内容将会在右边，通常，当人们创建float为基础的layout时，他们会float两列到左边（float:left），然后用 margin或者padding创建两列之间的间隙。用这种方法会导致这两列被紧紧地包在一个有限的空间里而没有气可喘。虽然很多浏览器运行时不会出现问 题，但是有些buggy（如IE）浏览器，两列会被迫互相挤压，导致layout被破坏。

为了预防这些现象发生，你需要避免将floated layout完满包含他们的元素中，不要使用水平的margin和padding来创建两列之间的空隙，你可以floating 一个元素在左边和floating一个元素在右边来创建间隙，实现的css很简单：

#content { width: 520px; float: right; }
#mainNav { width: 180px; float: left; }

要确保div footer能正确地放置在上面两个div元素的下面，div footer需要被cleared：

#footer { clear:both; }

下面设置一下div content和div mainNav周围的空隙，将它们可以有气可喘：
#mainNav { padding-top: 20px; padding-bottom: 20px; }
#mainNav li { padding-left: 20px; padding-right: 20px; }
#content h1, #content h2, #content p { padding-right: 20px; }

一个简单的两列布局就过完，快去实践一下吧。

三列floated layout：

三列的布局（以下称三列）与两列的布局是非常类似的，不同的是三列需要增加两个新的div到div content里，一个mainContent作为主内容，另一个secContent作为第二内容，如下：

<div id="content">
<div id="mainContent">
…
</div>
<div id="secContent">
…
</div>
</div>

相同地，你可以在div content里将mainContent设置左浮动，设置secContent右浮动，这就创建了三列的效果。css代码也很简单：

#mainContent { width: 320px; float: left; }
#secContent { width: 180px; float: right; }

删除之前content内元素设置的padding，然后用下面的设置代替：

#secondaryContent h1, #secondaryContent h2,#secondaryContent p { padding-left: 20px; padding-right: 20px;}

一个完整三列布局出现在你的面前了，是否有点成就感了。


Fixed-width, liquid, and elastic layout

直 到现在为止，上面的所有例子都用了固定的像素来设置宽度，这就是fixed-width layout了，有时也叫“ice layout”，fixed-width layout的使用也比较普遍，然而，因为它固定了宽度，随着大屏幕的革命，为800*600的分辨率设计的布局会显得太小了，相反为1024*768分 辨率设计的布局在小屏幕下又会出现滚动条。另一个缺点就是当文本的字体变大的时候，elastic layout会变得比较浏览器窗口的宽度更易宽，从而被迫出现水平的滚动条，有一个解决方法就是设计body标签的max-width为100%，但是 max-width只在现在浏览器才技术，IE就不支持max-width，然而为了解决这此问题，你可以使用下面的两种布局来代替。

Liquid layout(易变的layout)

liquid layout是将它的尺寸设置为百分比来代替用像素，它能根据浏览器窗口大小的改变来作出相应的放大与缩小，liquid layout的一个缺点就是当浏览器的窗口太大和太小都会影响用户的阅读，那么可以使用设置它的最大宽度和最小宽度来修正。现在你可以用这个技术来将 fixed -width 的三列布局用liquid的三列布局来实现，如下：

#wrapper { width: 85%; }
#mainNav { width: 23%; float: left; }
#content { width: 75%; float: right; }

mainNav 与content留有2%的可视空间，然后你可以设置content里面两列的宽度，如果你想secContent的宽度与mainNav一样的话，那你 可以取23%，但在content就是75%中的23%，那应该是31%，为留出可视空间，你可以设置mainContent的width为66%，如 下：

#mainContent { width: 66%; float: left; }
#secContent { width: 31%; float: right; }

上面的liquid三列的布局在1024*768的分辨率是显示为最佳，但是比这更大或者更小的分辨率也能使用用户阅读得很舒服，最后最好设置一下wrapper的最小宽度（min-width:720px;），以防窗口变小的挤压得变形了。

Elastic layout（弹性的layout）

liquid layout虽然能做到很好的显示效果，但是上面也说到了它的一些缺点，然而，Elastic layout能很好地解决liquid layout的缺点造成的问题。Elastic layout是用相关的字体的大小来设置元素的宽度，而不是用浏览器的宽度，用em来进行设置，这样你就可以确保你的字体变大的时候，整个布局也会随之自 动调整。还有，就是这样的布局能让文本的行高得到一个可读性好的大小，对减少用户视觉和感觉混乱都是很有帮助的。

像其它的布局技术一样， elastic layout也有它的缺点，它的缺点和fixed-width layout一样，就是当文本的字体变大的时候，elastic layout会变得比较浏览器窗口的宽度更易宽，从而被迫出现水平的滚动条，有一个解决方法就是设计body标签的max-width为100%，但是 max-width只在现在浏览器才技术，IE就不支持max-width。

将fixed-width layout改为Elastic layout是非常简单的，窍门是在body中设置基本的字体大小，使得1em等10像素，因为在大部门浏览器默认的字体大小是16像素，所以设置字体等于默认字体的62.5%就等10像素了，如下：

body { font-size: 62.5%; }

然后将fixed-width layout中所有像素表示的宽度用em来代替，如下：
#wrapper { width: 72em; margin: 0 auto; text-align: left; }
#mainNav { width: 18em; float: left; }
#content { width: 52em; float: right; }
#mainContent { width: 32em; float: left; }
#secContent { width: 18em; float: right; }

Fixed-width, liquid, and elastic layout都已经介绍完了，自己动手试一下吧。

通过在本地创建域名解析，使该域名针对本机即时生效。
Windows 操作系统可以通过修改一个文本文件解决此问题。这个文本文件名叫hosts，没有文件后缀名，通常存放路径为

%systemroot%\system32\drivers\etc\hosts

这是一个文本文件，用记事本打开，前面有“#”号的那段文字，详细说明如何编辑和使用这个文件。用户只要将网站域名、IP、域名描述写成一行，添加到这个文件后面就可以了。

添加的格式是这样的：
网站域名 网站IP #备注

例如：
210.72.225.18 www.hosting.czm.cn # 这是一个范例

中间加几个半角空格都行，主要用于排列整齐，没别的作用，但至少要有一个半角空格隔开。“#”为注释符，其后面的内容直到行尾将都会被系统忽略。 添加到这个文件的域名解析，保存后不用重新启动计算机就可以即时生效。

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